Super Bowl LVII betting preview: Eagles-Chiefs early spread, odds and reactions

The matchup for the biggest sports betting day of the year is finally set. The Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) will meet the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) in Super Bowl LVII on Feb. 12 at State Farm Stadium in Phoenix. The game opened as a pick ’em — but then moved to the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites within 30 minutes of posting — with the opening total set at 49.5 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Betting analysts Doug Kezirian,Tyler Fulghum and Erin Dolan give their initial thoughts on the opening line and movement as well as how bettors should approach early action on the Super Bowl.

Kezirian: I think Philly eventually closes as the favorite. The Eagles have the league’s most underrated defense, as it ranks second in efficiency and is healthy. Jalen Hurts was banged up but should be much sharper with the extra week of rest. Patrick Mahomes will also be healthier, but his injured right ankle still might be fragile. In the end, the Eagles are better in the trenches and have fewer defensive breakdowns, which almost cost the Chiefs against Cincinnati. It would not surprise me if Mahomes wins it. He’s that special. But this kind of feels like the matchup a few years ago when Kansas City lost to Tampa Bay, and the professional money backed the Bucs.
Fulghum: I want the Eagles and the over. Masteez will have a couple weeks to get his ankle right. Hopefully a few of the Chiefs’ injured playmakers will heal up. On the other side, Hurts and the Eagles should be able to move the ball efficiently no matter how they choose to attack. Plus, Nick Sirianni continues to employ aggressive decision-making tactics that maximize win probability and increase scoring opportunities.
This will end up being a money-line bet for me. Either way, I believe the total will continue to climb given both offenses can put up a ton of points. It went up half a point to 50 immediately. Get ready to place those anytime touchdown scorers! This will be a good one.

Jalen Hurts (+125) and Patrick Mahomes (+130) are the betting favorites for MVP of Super Bowl LVIII when the Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles on Feb. 12 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Hurts and Mahomes are the only players with odds in the single digits, as quarterbacks have won the award in 10 of the past 15 Super Bowls. Tight end Travis Kelce (10-1) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (12-1) have the next-shortest odds to win the award.

Betting on Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP instead of Kansas City’s moneyline at +110 does not make a ton of sense to me. He is the logical recipient in a Chiefs win but I’d rather just take the lower payout that does not limit me. Kelce and others have a chance so it is not worth the difference of twenty cents.

However, I do think if Philadelphia hoists the Lombardi Trophy this year, a wider range of players could win MVP. Miles Sanders (25-1) is a play I’ve made. Given Hurts’ injured shoulder, Sanders could have a vital role. Haason Reddick (40-1) is also worth a play. The Eagles’ defense will have to stop Mahomes for Philly to win. Reddick led the team in sacks during the regular season and was a force against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.

“You don’t want to go too high or too low. You’ll see some defensive players with astronomical odds and all it might take is a couple of sacks to swing things in their favor if it is not a clear-cut decision,” Caesars Sportsbook assistant director of trading Adam Pullen told ESPN. “So, pricing defensive players is something that is usually the most challenging every year when putting up the MVP odds.”

Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Monday

ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN’s proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for January 30th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Monday’s games
Right Where They Want Them?: The Philadelphia 76ers have been the best team in basketball since the beginning of December and much of that has come in entertaining fashion: overs are 20-6 over that stretch. Not that Orlando Magic backers need more fuel to their fire (11-2 ATS over their past 13 road games), but they have managed to cover the number in 10 of their past 15 games that have gone over the total.

Home Court Advantage:The spread on the betting board that looks the most “off” today is that in the Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors game … sportsbooks know what they are doing. The Thunder are 16-9 ATS at home this season while the Warriors are an ugly 8-16 ATS when playing on the road. If you’re more of a totals better, note that neither of these teams played over the weekend. It’s also worth being aware of the fact that overs are 15-9-1 when the Thunder play at home and 18-5-1 when the Warriors play on the road.

Boring Blazers: The Portland Trail Blazers wrap up a 12-day 6-game homestand tonight against the Atlanta Hawks in a game that sportsbooks are labeling as a coin flip. That sentiment should send off alarms in your head: the Blazers are 3-9 ATS and unders are 2-10 when the spread closes at three or fewer points.

Schroder’s Spot: The Los Angeles Lakers won’t have LeBron James or Anthony Davis in the lineup tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. While this is brutal for Brooklyn fans hoping to catch the King in a game already missing Kevin Durant, it does open up major value for Lakers guard Dennis Schroder, a player rostered in fewer than 30% of ESPN leagues and yet due for a major workload against a Nets team that can struggle to protect the perimeter when undermanned. For those building DFS lineups, we also recognize Russell Westbrook’s upside and potential to hit triple-double props in a plus spot.

Precious Minutes: We endorsed the Toronto Raptors’ Precious Achiuwa (91% available in ESPN leagues) as a strong streaming play this past Saturday in Portland and the former Kentucky standout delivered 27 points and 13 rebounds. With O.G. Anunoby ruled out for this evening’s matchup with the Suns, Achiuwa is in a good spot to flirt with double-double production once again.

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